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Championship · Matchday 35Tuesday 2 March · 19:45 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Derby County23rd place
CAR 52%X 25%DER 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Cardiff City 0.2, Derby County -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Cardiff City 1.4 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.553%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Cardiff City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.93X25%3.95223%4.39
Double chance
1X77%1.29X248%2.081275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.553%1.90Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cardiff City · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

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Head to head

Derby County – Cardiff City22 August 20262-2
Cardiff City – Derby County25 January 20252-1
Derby County – Cardiff City14 September 20241-0
Derby County – Cardiff City7 May 20220-1
Cardiff City – Derby County1 March 20221-0