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Championship · Matchday 35Tuesday 2 March · 19:45 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Wrexham18th place
WAT 33%X 28%WRE 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Wrexham lead by 103 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Wrexham -0.3, Watford -0.9.
  • If Watford score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Wrexham score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.4
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Wrexham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.00X28%3.52238%2.61
Double chance
1X62%1.62X267%1.501272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Wrexham1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →
WatfordLLWLL
WrexhamDLWLL

Head to head

Wrexham – Watford22 August 20261-1
Watford – Wrexham17 March 20263-1
Wrexham – Watford13 December 20252-2