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Eredivisie · Matchday 12Saturday 7 November · 17:45 · Cars Jeans Stadion
ADO Den Haag17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
ADO 30%X 27%SPA 43%

What's at stake

ADO Den HaagRelegation49%61%66%
Sparta RotterdamRelegation1%4%5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sparta Rotterdam 0.3, ADO Den Haag -0.7.
  • If ADO Den Haag score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Sparta Rotterdam win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.30X27%3.77243%2.32
Double chance
1X57%1.76X270%1.441273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.32BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: ADO Den Haag · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

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