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Eredivisie · Matchday 12Friday 6 November · 19:00 · Koning Willem II Stadion
Willem II18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
PEC Zwolle14th place
WIL 28%X 26%PEC 47%

What's at stake

PEC ZwolleRelegation9%14%18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PEC Zwolle lead by 151 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: PEC Zwolle 1.4 points per game, Willem II 0.0.
  • If Willem II score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If PEC Zwolle score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.8
Over 2.560%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a PEC Zwolle win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.62X26%3.87247%2.15
Double chance
1X53%1.87X272%1.381274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.51BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.63

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Willem II · Columns: PEC Zwolle1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Willem II – PEC Zwolle14 May 20251-2
PEC Zwolle – Willem II13 December 20240-1
PEC Zwolle – Willem II14 January 20222-0
Willem II – PEC Zwolle28 August 20211-0