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Eredivisie · Matchday 12Sunday 8 November · 19:00 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
NEC Nijmegen13th place
UTR 40%X 26%NEC 34%

What does the market say?

UtrechtDrawNEC NijmegenRinvalo40%26%34%
Market41%25%34%

✓ Agree · both back Utrecht

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (41%).
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.6
Over 2.563%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Utrecht win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.50X26%3.81234%2.97
Double chance
1X66%1.51X260%1.671274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.563%1.59Market 63%Under 2.537%2.71Market 38%BTTS yes65%1.54Market 65%BTTS no35%2.87Market 35%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Utrecht · Columns: NEC Nijmegen1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

NEC Nijmegen – Utrecht11 February 20261-3
Utrecht – NEC Nijmegen2 November 20251-0
Utrecht – NEC Nijmegen15 March 20250-1
NEC Nijmegen – Utrecht24 November 20241-2
Utrecht – NEC Nijmegen17 March 20241-0
NEC Nijmegen – Utrecht23 September 20233-0