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Eredivisie · Matchday 12Sunday 8 November · 15:45 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Groningen8th place
AZ 56%X 24%GRO 20%

What's at stake

AZ AlkmaarTop 312%8%6%

What does the market say?

AZ AlkmaarDrawGroningenRinvalo56%24%20%
Market61%21%18%

✓ Agree · both back AZ Alkmaar

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Groningen -0.2.
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • The market also backs the home side (61%).
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Groningen score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.80X24%4.14220%4.96
Double chance
1X80%1.25X244%2.261276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Market 69%Under 2.542%2.40Market 31%BTTS yes58%1.73Market 65%BTTS no42%2.36Market 35%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Groningen1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Groningen – AZ Alkmaar22 March 20263-0
AZ Alkmaar – Groningen10 August 20254-1
AZ Alkmaar – Groningen11 May 20253-0
Groningen – AZ Alkmaar25 August 20240-0
AZ Alkmaar – Groningen11 March 20231-0
Groningen – AZ Alkmaar1 October 20221-4