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Championship · Matchday 36Saturday 6 March · 15:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Charlton Athletic20th place
DER 44%X 29%CHA 27%

Prediction

  • If Derby County score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Charlton Athletic score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.542%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Derby County win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.27X29%3.46227%3.68
Double chance
1X73%1.37X256%1.781271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.542%2.36Under 2.558%1.74BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Charlton Athletic1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

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Head to head

Charlton Athletic – Derby County15 August 20262-1
Charlton Athletic – Derby County20 January 20261-2
Derby County – Charlton Athletic30 September 20251-1