TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 36Saturday 6 March · 15:00 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Watford21st place
SOU 73%X 18%WAT 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 273 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Southampton 0.2, Watford -0.9.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 32% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.7
Over 2.561%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
173%1.36X18%5.6429%11.31
Double chance
1X91%1.10X227%3.761282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.561%1.64Under 2.539%2.56BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Watford2-0 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Watford – Southampton16 August 20262-1
Southampton – Watford7 February 20261-0
Watford – Southampton30 August 20252-2
Southampton – Watford13 April 20243-2
Watford – Southampton9 December 20231-1
Southampton – Watford13 March 20221-2