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Championship · Matchday 36Saturday 6 March · 15:00 · Swansea.com Stadium
Swansea City3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Stoke City7th place
SWA 53%X 27%STK 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Swansea City lead by 81 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Swansea City 0.3, Stoke City -0.3.
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.9
Over 2.544%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.89X27%3.74220%4.90
Double chance
1X80%1.26X247%2.121273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.544%2.27Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes47%2.13BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Swansea City · Columns: Stoke City1-0 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Stoke City – Swansea City15 August 20261-2
Swansea City – Stoke City7 March 20262-0
Stoke City – Swansea City13 December 20252-1
Stoke City – Swansea City15 February 20253-1
Swansea City – Stoke City5 October 20240-0
Swansea City – Stoke City10 April 20243-0