TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 32Tuesday 16 February · 19:45 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
QPR9th place
DER 28%X 28%QPR 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • QPR lead by 88 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: QPR 0.5, Derby County -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: QPR 1.4 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If QPR score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a QPR win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.54X28%3.60244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X272%1.391272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: QPR1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →
QPRDWLWL

Head to head

QPR – Derby County14 October 20264-1
QPR – Derby County25 April 20262-3
Derby County – QPR25 October 20251-0
QPR – Derby County14 February 20254-0
Derby County – QPR5 October 20242-0
QPR – Derby County18 April 20221-0