TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 32Wednesday 17 February · 19:45 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Stoke City7th place
MID 67%X 21%STK 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 139 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Stoke City -0.3.
  • Middlesbrough take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 38% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.8
Over 2.553%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.49X21%4.81212%8.38
Double chance
1X88%1.14X233%3.051279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes47%2.14BTTS no53%1.88

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Stoke City2-0 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Stoke City – Middlesbrough13 October 20262-3
Stoke City – Middlesbrough21 January 20261-2
Middlesbrough – Stoke City30 September 20250-0
Stoke City – Middlesbrough25 February 20251-3
Middlesbrough – Stoke City28 September 20242-0
Stoke City – Middlesbrough2 March 20242-0