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Championship · Matchday 32Tuesday 16 February · 19:45 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Cardiff City17th place
WAT 37%X 27%CAR 36%

Prediction

  • If Watford score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Over 2.550%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Watford win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.74X27%3.64236%2.78
Double chance
1X64%1.56X263%1.581273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Cardiff City1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

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Head to head

Cardiff City – Watford13 October 20265-1
Cardiff City – Watford14 January 20251-1
Watford – Cardiff City29 December 20241-2
Watford – Cardiff City3 February 20240-1
Cardiff City – Watford7 October 20231-1
Watford – Cardiff City19 April 20231-3