TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 9Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Wrexham18th place
DER 37%X 29%WRE 34%

What does the market say?

Derby CountyDrawWrexhamRinvalo37%29%34%
Market35%28%36%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Derby County 37%, market Wrexham 36%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
  • If Derby County score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Wrexham score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Over 2.549%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Derby County win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.70X29%3.45234%2.94
Double chance
1X66%1.51X263%1.591271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Wrexham1-1 probability 13.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Derby County – Wrexham10 October 20261-1
Derby County – Wrexham4 January 20261-2
Wrexham – Derby County27 September 20251-1