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Bundesliga · Matchday 13Saturday 12 December · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Augsburg10th place
BVB 68%X 20%FCA 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 185 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 1.8 points per game, Augsburg 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Augsburg -0.5.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.9
Over 2.560%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.48X20%4.96212%8.14
Double chance
1X88%1.14X232%3.081280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.52BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Augsburg2-0 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Dortmund – Augsburg14 March 20262-0
Augsburg – Dortmund31 October 20250-1
Dortmund – Augsburg8 March 20250-1
Augsburg – Dortmund26 October 20242-1
Dortmund – Augsburg4 May 20245-1
Augsburg – Dortmund16 December 20231-1