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Bundesliga · Matchday 13Saturday 12 December · 14:30 · RheinEnergieStadion
Köln13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
RB Leipzig4th place
KOE 24%X 25%RBL 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 178 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Köln -0.1.
  • Last 5 games: RB Leipzig 1.8 points per game, Köln 1.0.
  • If Köln score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.9
Over 2.561%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.11X25%4.06251%1.96
Double chance
1X49%2.04X276%1.321275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Köln · Columns: RB Leipzig1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →
KölnLWLDD

Head to head

Köln – RB Leipzig8 February 20261-2
RB Leipzig – Köln20 September 20253-1
Köln – RB Leipzig15 March 20241-5
RB Leipzig – Köln28 October 20236-0
Köln – RB Leipzig4 February 20230-0
RB Leipzig – Köln13 August 20222-2