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Bundesliga · Matchday 13Saturday 12 December · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Freiburg3rd place
M05 40%X 27%SCF 33%

Prediction

  • If Mainz score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.51X27%3.66233%3.05
Double chance
1X67%1.49X260%1.661273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Freiburg1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Mainz – Freiburg12 April 20260-1
Freiburg – Mainz30 November 20254-0
Mainz – Freiburg15 March 20252-2
Freiburg – Mainz3 November 20240-0
Freiburg – Mainz21 April 20241-1
Mainz – Freiburg3 December 20230-1