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Bundesliga · Matchday 25Saturday 6 March · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Bayern Munich1st place
BVB 22%X 24%FCB 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Dortmund 0.4.
  • Bayern Munich lead by 97 rating points.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.3 – 2.1
Over 2.565%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Bayern Munich win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.45X24%4.18254%1.86
Double chance
1X46%2.16X278%1.291276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.88BTTS yes64%1.56BTTS no36%2.79

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Bayern Munich1-1 probability 9.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bayern Munich – Dortmund31 October 20262-2
Dortmund – Bayern Munich28 February 20262-3
Bayern Munich – Dortmund18 October 20252-1
Bayern Munich – Dortmund12 April 20252-2
Dortmund – Bayern Munich30 November 20241-1
Bayern Munich – Dortmund30 March 20240-2