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Bundesliga · Matchday 25Saturday 6 March · 14:30 · Home Deluxe Arena
Paderborn14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
M'gladbach18th place
SCP 40%X 29%BMG 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Paderborn 1.6 points per game, M'gladbach 0.8.
  • If Paderborn score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Over 2.542%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Paderborn win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.49X29%3.50231%3.20
Double chance
1X69%1.45X260%1.671271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.542%2.36Under 2.558%1.73BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paderborn · Columns: M'gladbach1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

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Head to head

M'gladbach – Paderborn31 October 20260-0