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Bundesliga · Matchday 25Saturday 6 March · 14:30 · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Augsburg10th place
SCF 56%X 24%FCA 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 64 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Freiburg 1.4 points per game, Augsburg 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Freiburg 0.3, Augsburg -0.5.
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.1
Over 2.560%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Freiburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.79X24%4.12220%5.00
Double chance
1X80%1.25X244%2.261276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.49BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Freiburg · Columns: Augsburg1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Augsburg – Freiburg31 October 20261-2
Augsburg – Freiburg18 January 20262-2
Freiburg – Augsburg23 August 20251-3
Augsburg – Freiburg2 March 20250-0
Freiburg – Augsburg19 October 20243-1
Augsburg – Freiburg25 February 20242-1