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Bundesliga · Matchday 25Saturday 6 March · 14:30 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Werder Bremen5th place
TSG 53%X 25%SVW 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.4, Werder Bremen -0.2.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.3
Over 2.563%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Hoffenheim win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.90X25%3.99222%4.46
Double chance
1X78%1.29X247%2.111275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.73BTTS yes63%1.59BTTS no37%2.69

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: Werder Bremen1-1 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Werder Bremen – Hoffenheim31 October 20262-0
Hoffenheim – Werder Bremen9 May 20261-0
Werder Bremen – Hoffenheim27 January 20260-2
Werder Bremen – Hoffenheim16 February 20251-3
Hoffenheim – Werder Bremen29 September 20243-4
Hoffenheim – Werder Bremen3 March 20242-1