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Bundesliga · Matchday 25Saturday 6 March · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Elversberg7th place
M05 59%X 22%SVE 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Elversberg -0.7.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.3
Over 2.570%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.68X22%4.48218%5.46
Double chance
1X82%1.22X241%2.461278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.570%1.44Under 2.530%3.28BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Elversberg2-1 probability 9.4%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Elversberg – Mainz30 October 20264-1