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Bundesliga · Matchday 17Saturday 16 January · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Freiburg3rd place
BVB 56%X 25%SCF 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 121 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.0
Over 2.556%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.77X25%4.00219%5.41
Double chance
1X82%1.23X244%2.301275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Freiburg1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Dortmund – Freiburg26 April 20264-0
Freiburg – Dortmund14 December 20251-1
Freiburg – Dortmund5 April 20251-4
Dortmund – Freiburg23 November 20244-0
Dortmund – Freiburg9 February 20243-0
Freiburg – Dortmund16 September 20232-4