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Bundesliga · Matchday 17Saturday 16 January · 14:30 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
RB Leipzig4th place
TSG 35%X 26%RBL 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 85 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Hoffenheim 0.4.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.8
Over 2.567%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.85X26%3.84239%2.57
Double chance
1X61%1.64X265%1.541274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.567%1.49Under 2.533%3.02BTTS yes68%1.47BTTS no32%3.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: RB Leipzig1-1 probability 10.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

RB Leipzig – Hoffenheim20 March 20265-0
Hoffenheim – RB Leipzig8 November 20253-1
RB Leipzig – Hoffenheim5 April 20253-1
Hoffenheim – RB Leipzig23 November 20244-3
Hoffenheim – RB Leipzig3 May 20241-1
RB Leipzig – Hoffenheim16 December 20233-1