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Bundesliga · Matchday 17Saturday 16 January · 14:30 · Weserstadion
Werder Bremen5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Elversberg7th place
SVW 58%X 23%SVE 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Werder Bremen 2.2 points per game, Elversberg 1.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Werder Bremen -0.2, Elversberg -0.7.
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.3
Over 2.568%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.72X23%4.36219%5.27
Double chance
1X81%1.23X242%2.391277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.568%1.48Under 2.532%3.08BTTS yes64%1.55BTTS no36%2.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
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Rows: Werder Bremen · Columns: Elversberg2-1 probability 9.6%

Form

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