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Bundesliga · Matchday 17Saturday 16 January · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Schalke 0417th place
B04 73%X 18%S04 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 171 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Leverkusen 1.8 points per game, Schalke 04 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.1, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 90% of the time
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.6
Over 2.549%
Both teams score39%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
173%1.38X18%5.5629%10.73
Double chance
1X91%1.10X227%3.661282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes39%2.59BTTS no61%1.63

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Schalke 042-0 probability 15.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Schalke 04 – Leverkusen1 April 20230-3
Leverkusen – Schalke 048 October 20224-0