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Bundesliga · Matchday 17Saturday 16 January · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Augsburg10th place
HSV 40%X 27%FCA 33%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Hamburg 1.8 points per game, Augsburg 0.4.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.3
Over 2.553%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Hamburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.48X27%3.72233%3.05
Double chance
1X67%1.49X260%1.681273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.553%1.87Under 2.547%2.15BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.37

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: Augsburg1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
HamburgWWWLL

Head to head

Hamburg – Augsburg4 April 20261-1
Augsburg – Hamburg22 November 20251-0