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Bundesliga · Matchday 17Saturday 16 January · 14:30 · MHP Arena
Stuttgart11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Mainz9th place
VFB 59%X 23%M05 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Stuttgart lead by 100 rating points.
  • If Stuttgart score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.2
Over 2.567%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.71X23%4.39219%5.37
Double chance
1X81%1.23X241%2.421277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.567%1.49Under 2.533%3.05BTTS yes64%1.57BTTS no36%2.76

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stuttgart · Columns: Mainz2-1 probability 9.6%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Mainz – Stuttgart7 March 20262-2
Stuttgart – Mainz26 October 20252-1
Mainz – Stuttgart25 January 20252-0
Stuttgart – Mainz31 August 20243-3
Stuttgart – Mainz11 February 20243-1
Mainz – Stuttgart16 September 20231-3