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Bundesliga · Matchday 27Saturday 20 March · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
M'gladbach18th place
BVB 71%X 19%BMG 10%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 249 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, M'gladbach -0.6.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 1.8 points per game, M'gladbach 0.8.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 33% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.8
Over 2.562%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
171%1.40X19%5.35210%10.00
Double chance
1X90%1.11X229%3.491281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.62BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: M'gladbach2-0 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

M'gladbach – Dortmund3 May 20261-0
Dortmund – M'gladbach19 December 20252-0
Dortmund – M'gladbach20 April 20253-2
M'gladbach – Dortmund7 December 20241-1
M'gladbach – Dortmund13 April 20241-2
Dortmund – M'gladbach25 November 20234-2