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Bundesliga · Matchday 27Saturday 20 March · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Augsburg10th place
M05 51%X 25%FCA 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Augsburg -0.5.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.560%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.95X25%4.03224%4.19
Double chance
1X76%1.31X249%2.051275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.51BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.55

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Augsburg1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Mainz – Augsburg7 February 20262-0
Augsburg – Mainz20 September 20251-4
Mainz – Augsburg8 February 20250-0
Augsburg – Mainz20 September 20242-3
Mainz – Augsburg17 February 20241-0
Augsburg – Mainz23 September 20232-1