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Bundesliga · Matchday 27Saturday 20 March · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Werder Bremen5th place
HSV 36%X 28%SVW 36%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Derby match.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.4
Over 2.551%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Hamburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.75X28%3.59236%2.79
Double chance
1X64%1.56X264%1.571272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.551%1.94Under 2.549%2.06BTTS yes56%1.77BTTS no44%2.29

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: Werder Bremen1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

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Head to head

Werder Bremen – Hamburg18 April 20263-1
Hamburg – Werder Bremen7 December 20253-2