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Bundesliga · Matchday 27Saturday 20 March · 14:30 · Home Deluxe Arena
Paderborn14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Leverkusen6th place
SCP 25%X 26%B04 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 130 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.1, Paderborn -0.6.
  • If Paderborn score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.549%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.06X26%3.87250%2.02
Double chance
1X50%1.98X275%1.331274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paderborn · Columns: Leverkusen1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

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