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Bundesliga · Matchday 15Saturday 9 January · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Mainz9th place
BVB 63%X 22%M05 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 191 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.559%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.59X22%4.47215%6.79
Double chance
1X85%1.17X237%2.691278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.45BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Mainz2-0 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Dortmund – Mainz13 February 20264-0
Mainz – Dortmund27 September 20250-2
Dortmund – Mainz30 March 20253-1
Mainz – Dortmund9 November 20243-1
Mainz – Dortmund11 May 20243-0
Dortmund – Mainz19 December 20231-1