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Bundesliga · Matchday 15Saturday 9 January · 14:30 · Weserstadion
Werder Bremen5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Union Berlin16th place
SVW 53%X 26%FCU 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Werder Bremen lead by 64 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Werder Bremen 2.2 points per game, Union Berlin 1.2.
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.552%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Werder Bremen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.88X26%3.85221%4.82
Double chance
1X79%1.26X247%2.141274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Werder Bremen · Columns: Union Berlin1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Union Berlin – Werder Bremen8 March 20261-4
Werder Bremen – Union Berlin24 October 20251-0
Union Berlin – Werder Bremen3 May 20252-2
Werder Bremen – Union Berlin21 December 20244-1
Union Berlin – Werder Bremen16 March 20242-1
Werder Bremen – Union Berlin28 October 20232-0