TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 15Saturday 9 January · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Leverkusen6th place
HSV 29%X 25%B04 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 144 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.1, Hamburg -0.7.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.7
Over 2.560%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.43X25%3.93245%2.21
Double chance
1X55%1.83X271%1.411275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.49BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.63

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: Leverkusen1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leverkusen – Hamburg16 May 20261-1
Hamburg – Leverkusen4 March 20260-1