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Bundesliga · Matchday 29Saturday 10 April · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Schalke 0417th place
BVB 76%X 17%S04 7%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 273 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 1.8 points per game, Schalke 04 0.4.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 32% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.4
Over 2.545%
Both teams score31%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
176%1.31X17%6.0427%14.18
Double chance
1X93%1.08X224%4.241283%1.20
Goals
Over 2.545%2.20Under 2.555%1.83BTTS yes31%3.26BTTS no69%1.44

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Schalke 042-0 probability 17.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Schalke 04 – Dortmund11 March 20232-2
Dortmund – Schalke 0417 September 20221-0