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Bundesliga · Matchday 29Saturday 10 April · 14:30 · Stadion im Borussia-Park
M'gladbach18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Leverkusen6th place
BMG 29%X 25%B04 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 147 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Leverkusen 1.8 points per game, M'gladbach 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.1, M'gladbach -0.6.
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.8
Over 2.564%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.44X25%3.98246%2.18
Double chance
1X54%1.85X271%1.411275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.78BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.87

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: M'gladbach · Columns: Leverkusen1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

M'gladbach – Leverkusen7 February 20261-1
Leverkusen – M'gladbach21 September 20251-1
Leverkusen – M'gladbach18 January 20253-1
M'gladbach – Leverkusen23 August 20242-3
Leverkusen – M'gladbach27 January 20240-0
M'gladbach – Leverkusen26 August 20230-3