TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 29Saturday 10 April · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
RB Leipzig4th place
M05 30%X 26%RBL 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 114 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Mainz 0.4.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.8
Over 2.562%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.38X26%3.89245%2.24
Double chance
1X55%1.81X270%1.421274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.562%1.60Under 2.538%2.66BTTS yes64%1.56BTTS no36%2.78

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: RB Leipzig1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

RB Leipzig – Mainz31 January 20261-2
Mainz – RB Leipzig13 September 20250-1
RB Leipzig – Mainz1 March 20251-2
Mainz – RB Leipzig19 October 20240-2
RB Leipzig – Mainz30 March 20240-0
Mainz – RB Leipzig4 November 20232-0