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Bundesliga · Matchday 29Saturday 10 April · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Union Berlin16th place
HSV 44%X 28%FCU 28%

Prediction

  • If Hamburg score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Hamburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.27X28%3.55228%3.60
Double chance
1X72%1.38X256%1.791272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: Union Berlin1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

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Head to head

Hamburg – Union Berlin14 February 20263-2
Union Berlin – Hamburg28 September 20250-0