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Bundesliga · Matchday 21Saturday 13 February · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Stuttgart11th place
BVB 54%X 25%VFB 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 91 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Stuttgart -0.1.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Stuttgart score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.560%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.85X25%4.04221%4.70
Double chance
1X79%1.27X246%2.171275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.49BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.48

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Stuttgart1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Stuttgart – Dortmund19 September 20260-1
Stuttgart – Dortmund4 April 20260-2
Dortmund – Stuttgart22 November 20253-3
Dortmund – Stuttgart8 February 20251-2
Stuttgart – Dortmund22 September 20245-1
Dortmund – Stuttgart6 April 20240-1