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Bundesliga · Matchday 21Saturday 13 February · 14:30 · RheinEnergieStadion
Köln13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Hamburg15th place
KOE 49%X 27%HSV 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Köln -0.1, Hamburg -0.7.
  • If Köln score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.551%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Köln win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.04X27%3.75224%4.10
Double chance
1X76%1.32X251%1.961273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Köln · Columns: Hamburg1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
KölnLWLDD
HamburgWWWLL

Head to head

Hamburg – Köln19 September 20262-1
Hamburg – Köln14 March 20261-1
Köln – Hamburg2 November 20254-1