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Bundesliga · Matchday 21Saturday 13 February · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
M'gladbach18th place
M05 57%X 24%BMG 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, M'gladbach -0.6.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.1
Over 2.561%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X24%4.23219%5.23
Double chance
1X81%1.24X243%2.341276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: M'gladbach1-1 probability 10.5%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

M'gladbach – Mainz19 September 20263-4
M'gladbach – Mainz19 April 20261-1
Mainz – M'gladbach5 December 20250-1
M'gladbach – Mainz7 March 20251-3
Mainz – M'gladbach25 October 20241-1
Mainz – M'gladbach2 March 20241-1