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Primeira Liga · Matchday 11Sunday 8 November · 20:30 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Benfica2nd place
EAM 10%X 16%BEN 74%

What's at stake

Estrela AmadoraRelegation5%7%10%
BenficaTitle30%21%18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 337 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Estrela Amadora -0.1.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 30% of the time
  • If Benfica score first, they win 89% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals0.9 – 2.6
Over 2.569%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
110%10.12X16%6.31274%1.35
Double chance
1X26%3.89X290%1.111284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.569%1.46Under 2.531%3.19BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Benfica0-2 probability 10.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Benfica – Estrela Amadora25 January 20264-0
Estrela Amadora – Benfica16 August 20250-1
Estrela Amadora – Benfica2 February 20252-3
Benfica – Estrela Amadora24 August 20241-0
Estrela Amadora – Benfica29 January 20241-4
Benfica – Estrela Amadora19 August 20232-0