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Primeira Liga · Matchday 11Saturday 7 November · 18:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Casa Pia17th place
ALV 55%X 26%CPA 19%

What's at stake

Casa PiaRelegation24%35%40%

What does the market say?

AlvercaDrawCasa PiaRinvalo55%26%19%
Market56%25%20%

✓ Agree · both back Alverca

Prediction

Key factors
  • Alverca lead by 92 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Alverca -0.2, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • The market also backs the home side (56%).
  • If Alverca score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.8
Over 2.544%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.82X26%3.82219%5.29
Double chance
1X81%1.23X245%2.221274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.544%2.26Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes46%2.17BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Casa Pia1-0 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →
AlvercaLWWWL

Head to head

Alverca – Casa Pia12 April 20263-1
Casa Pia – Alverca29 November 20250-2