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Primeira Liga · Matchday 11Sunday 8 November · 18:00 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Porto1st place
VSC 14%X 22%POR 64%

What's at stake

PortoTitle68%56%53%

What does the market say?

Vitória de GuimarãesDrawPortoRinvalo14%22%64%
Market18%23%59%

✓ Agree · both back Porto

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 294 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Vitória de Guimarães 1.0.
  • Porto take 2.5 points per game away.
  • The market also backs the away side (59%).
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 43% of the time
  • If Porto score first, they win 85% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.7 – 1.8
Over 2.547%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%6.98X22%4.60264%1.56
Double chance
1X36%2.77X286%1.171278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Market 54%Under 2.553%1.90Market 46%BTTS yes44%2.26Market 52%BTTS no56%1.79Market 48%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Vitória de Guimarães · Columns: Porto0-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Porto18 January 20260-1
Porto – Vitória de Guimarães11 August 20253-0
Porto – Vitória de Guimarães24 February 20251-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Porto21 September 20240-3
Porto – Vitória de Guimarães7 April 20241-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Porto11 November 20231-2