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Primeira Liga · Matchday 11Saturday 7 November · 20:30 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Moreirense8th place
SCP 79%X 14%MOR 6%

What's at stake

Sporting CPTitle8%6%4%

What does the market say?

Sporting CPDrawMoreirenseRinvalo79%14%6%
Market81%12%6%

✓ Agree · both back Sporting CP

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 251 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Moreirense -0.9.
  • Sporting CP take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • The market also backs the home side (81%).
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 25% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.8 – 0.7
Over 2.568%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
179%1.26X14%7.0126%15.72
Double chance
1X94%1.07X221%4.851286%1.17
Goals
Over 2.568%1.46Market 67%Under 2.532%3.16Market 33%BTTS yes49%2.03Market 44%BTTS no51%1.97Market 56%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sporting CP · Columns: Moreirense2-0 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Moreirense – Sporting CP21 February 20260-3
Sporting CP – Moreirense22 September 20253-0
Sporting CP – Moreirense18 April 20253-1
Moreirense – Sporting CP5 December 20242-1
Moreirense – Sporting CP19 February 20240-2
Sporting CP – Moreirense17 September 20233-0