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Primeira Liga · Matchday 11Sunday 8 November · 15:30 · Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Estoril18th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Marítimo14th place
EST 48%X 27%MAR 25%

What's at stake

EstorilRelegation47%62%69%
MarítimoRelegation26%37%46%

What does the market say?

EstorilDrawMarítimoRinvalo48%27%25%
Market44%27%28%

✓ Agree · both back Estoril

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (44%).
  • If Estoril score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.557%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Estoril win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.09X27%3.68225%4.01
Double chance
1X75%1.33X252%1.921273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.557%1.77Under 2.543%2.30BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estoril · Columns: Marítimo1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Estoril – Marítimo27 May 20233-1
Marítimo – Estoril22 January 20231-0
Marítimo – Estoril5 February 20220-0
Estoril – Marítimo27 August 20212-1