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Primeira Liga · Matchday 15Sunday 20 December · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Marítimo14th place
EAM 49%X 27%MAR 24%

Prediction

  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.554%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Estrela Amadora win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.03X27%3.68224%4.25
Double chance
1X76%1.31X251%1.971273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.554%1.87Under 2.546%2.16BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Marítimo1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

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