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Primeira Liga · Matchday 15Sunday 20 December · 16:00 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
SCL 43%X 30%VSC 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Santa Clara lead by 82 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Santa Clara 2.0 points per game, Vitória de Guimarães 1.0.
  • Santa Clara take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.2 – 0.9
Over 2.537%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Santa Clara win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.33X30%3.32227%3.72
Double chance
1X73%1.37X257%1.751270%1.43
Goals
Over 2.537%2.73Under 2.563%1.58BTTS yes44%2.29BTTS no56%1.77

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Santa Clara · Columns: Vitória de Guimarães1-1 probability 14.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Santa Clara – Vitória de Guimarães8 March 20262-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Santa Clara4 October 20252-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Santa Clara5 April 20252-0
Santa Clara – Vitória de Guimarães10 November 20241-0
Santa Clara – Vitória de Guimarães5 March 20231-3
Vitória de Guimarães – Santa Clara9 September 20221-0