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Primeira Liga · Matchday 15Sunday 20 December · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Moreirense8th place
NAC 40%X 29%MOR 32%

Prediction

  • If Nacional score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Nacional win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.53X29%3.48232%3.16
Double chance
1X68%1.46X260%1.661271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.545%2.24Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Moreirense1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Moreirense – Nacional7 March 20261-1
Nacional – Moreirense4 October 20253-2
Moreirense – Nacional27 April 20251-1
Nacional – Moreirense14 December 20241-0