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Primeira Liga · Matchday 21Sunday 7 February · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Nacional15th place
EAM 42%X 28%NAC 30%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Estrela Amadora -0.1, Nacional -0.7.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Estrela Amadora win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.39X28%3.53230%3.36
Double chance
1X70%1.42X258%1.721272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.547%2.12Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no48%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Nacional1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Nacional – Estrela Amadora30 August 20262-3
Nacional – Estrela Amadora4 April 20262-0
Estrela Amadora – Nacional9 November 20251-1
Nacional – Estrela Amadora6 April 20250-1
Estrela Amadora – Nacional10 November 20242-0